The fate of a party, and a dynasty, in the balance

Sonia Gandhi accepts Congress Party's defeat as Rahul smiles on

As the results of the biggest democratic exercise in history began to flow on 16 May 2014, and it became undeniable that the Congress Party had been all but wiped out by the BJP’s Narendra Modi ‘Wave’, the ruling party’s first family – Sonia Gandhi, the party president and her son Rahul Gandhi, the vice president - walked out to accept defeat and face the media.

Rahul Gandhi chose to speak first. In a statement that was short and, it seemed, ad-libbed, he uttered four sentences.

“I would like to start by congratulating the new Government. They have been given the mandate by the people of our country, so I wish the new government all the best. On my part (a long pause and a shy smirk), Congress Party has done pretty badly. There’s a lot for us to think about and as the vice president of the party, I hold myself responsible for what has happened.”  At which point he smiled, rolled up his sleeves, and stood aside to allow his mother to speak.

For someone who headed the Congress campaign and was projected as prime ministerial material, this 30-second effort was deeply unimpressive. As was – in the consensus view of the pundits - his performance throughout the campaign. As his mother spoke, he smiled and winked. He came across as ‘irresponsible’, ‘immature’ and ‘out of sync’, according to the commentators.

No sooner had Sonia Gandhi finished reading out her statement, Rahul was whisked away by his ‘over-protective’ mother.

The Gandhis and the Congress Party are so entwined that it is difficult to imagine one surviving without the other.

This was the worst defeat ever suffered by Congress, India’s longest-enduring political party.

The Indian electorate reduced them to just 44 seats in the Lower House, hemorrhaging 162 seats. Congress does not even have the 10 per cent of the numbers required to qualify to put forward a Leader of the Opposition in the Parliament. Most of its ministers – Kapil Sibal, Ajay Maken, Sriprakash Jaishwal, Sachin Pilot, Farooq Abdullah - have gone.

While the mother-son duo won their own respective seats – Amethi and Rae Bareli – Congress did not manage to win a single seat except these two in India’s biggest state - Uttar Pradesh (UP sends 80 MPs to the parliament). The party has been wiped out in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Goa, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and decimated in Karnataka, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra, Assam, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. Congress leadership not only disappointed its cadre, supporters and voters but the party ministers and other senior leaders. Many insiders within the party blame the leadership for their dismal loss.

So is it the end of the road for the Gandhi family and, if so, what of the fate of the Congress Party without the dynasty which has so defined it?

Sonia Gandhi has been the president since 1998 and is likely near the end of her career, owing to her ill health. Rahul Gandhi’s disastrous campaign in these elections mean there are few who are likely to back him to take over the reins, at least not in the shorter term.

Priyanka Gandhi, his sister, while a promising prospect is, at the moment, not seen as a viable one. With little experience in party affairs, Priyanka’s role has always been limited to campaigning for her brother and mother during elections.

Naturally these are issues weighing heavily on the minds of the senior party leaders. Three days after being pushed out of most parts of the country, the party held its Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting in New Delhi to discuss the debacle. Insiders told the media waiting outside that Sonia and Rahul had both offered their resignations, but these were not accepted.

Senior political columnist Tavleen Singh tweeted: “Did anyone believe the president and vice president of Indian National Congress private limited would be allowed to resign?”

The Gandhis and the Congress Party are so entwined that it is difficult to imagine one surviving without the other. History has witnessed it. Take the Gandhis out of Congress and the party will crumble.

After Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination in 1991, the party leaders - who had grown so dependent on the family since Independence – urged his Italian-born widow Sonia to take over the leadership. She chose to keep her distance at that time and instead PV Narshimha Rao (who went onto become India’s Prime Minister) became leader. But the Congress party soon crumbled post his tenure.

An exodus of the senior ranks compelled the party membership to return to Sonia Gandhi. In her, they saw someone who could save them from extinction. She ultimately relented, becoming the fifth member of  the family to hold the post (following Motilal Nehru, Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi).

She fought her first election in 1999 and became Leader of Opposition in the Parliament. No one then imagined she could haul Congress back into the limelight. For the next five years, Sonia worked with the senior leaders, learnt to make political decisions, grappled with the nitty gritty.

In 2004, Sonia Gandhi took to the road and campaigned across the country reaching out to the ‘aam aadmi’ (common man), the demographic ignored by the rival National Demographic Alliance’s ‘India Shining’ campaign. Congress made an astounding comeback and went onto govern India for a decade. The matriarch had restored the flailing party.

Today it is Rahul Gandhi standing at the crossroads, the party’s destiny in his hands. He has made mistakes - some terrible ones. Implementing US-style primaries without knowing the names of the party cadre who have dedicated their entire lives for the Congress Party showcased his misplaced priorities.

Blaming the ‘corrupt government’ and ‘anti-incumbency’ factor, as he did through the campaign, is definitely far more convenient than owing up to one’s feeble leadership skills. Not recognising and acknowledging Narendra Modi as a formidable competition was another whopping blunder.

But not everything is lost. Still in his early 40s, he has almost two more decades of active professional life to look forward to. He needs to shed his moony  self to come across as a leader whom his cadre can rely on and look up to.

Rahul – who barely appeared to be in touch with his party members - needs to tour the vast country, get close to the Congress foot soldiers, work from the grassroots to restructure the party. With a rival as formidable as Narendra Modi, he needs to acknowledge that he cannot assume leadership as his birthright.

Rahul Gandhi needs to sit in the Opposition, not just for the sake of it, but to hold the ruling party accountable at every step. Becoming engaged, involved and accountable will not only bring him back to the fore but will also go a long way in reviving the spirits of his party.

Not very long ago, in January 2013, when Rahul Gandhi was anointed the Vice President of the party, in his maiden speech he declared: “Congress party is now my life, people of India are my life. I will fight for people of India and for this party. I will fight with everything that I have.”

For Rahul, perhaps it is time to revisit that commitment. It's time to rise to the challenge of resurrecting himself and his party. If he needs a model, he might recall that his mother fought the charismatic and popular Atal Behari Vajpayee and won.

First published: http://electionwatch.edu.au/india-2014/fate-party-and-dynasty-balance

Discussing Narendra Modi's arrival on The World with Jim Middleton and Beverley O'Connor

Video Courtesy: ABC News Australia

The Verdict: How the Modi "Wave" became a tsunami

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks blessings from his mother Hiraba in Gandhinagar, Gujarat.

The world’s biggest democracy – India has chosen the Bharatiya Janta Party’s (BJP) Narendra Modi as their next Prime Minister. Weeks of endless speculation on the numbers ended within hours once the counting of votes began early yesterday afternoon (Australian time). BJP was clearly leading from the outset with astounding margins in the majority of constituencies - the party's best performance ever. 

The so-called ‘divisive’, ‘autocratic’ and ‘polarising’ Chief Minister of Gujarat had won the overwhelming confidence of the vast Indian electorate. Modi, 68, has won from both the constituencies he contested from – Vadodara and Varanasi. Soon after the results declared him and his party a winner, Narendra Modi tweeted ‘India has won. Good days beckon us.’

Modi’s first stop post his victory was to visit his elderly mother. “My son will lead the country towards development,” said his mother Hiraba, who had prayed for his victory.  By late evening it was clear that BJP, even without its allies, has crossed the crucial mark of 272 seats to gain an outright majority in the house - the first since 1984.

Pundits have long predicted that this epic campaign would result in a "Modi Wave". But as the results came in, it was more accurately likened to a tsunami. The results surprised Modi supporters and sceptics alike. 

Celebrations soon began at BJP’s Ashoke Road headquarters in Delhi after the counting began. Visuals of fireworks, ladoos (indian sweets, eaten in celebration), dhol (drums) and dancing were flashed across the Indian news channels and the world.

The question many began to ask was what had delivered the BJP such stunning success? Was it due to policy, or strategy, or the disillusionment of the electorate with the old paradigms?

Projecting Narendra Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate in mid-September last year and turning this electoral fight into a presidential-style election has proved to be an inspired strategy for the BJP.

Few leaders within Modi’s own party had faith in him. Some were plainly apprehensive about designing their campaign around Modi, and even resisted the strategy to a substantial extent.

But Modi worked hard within those constraints with teams of his supporters and cadre within the party. In an exhausting, unrelenting campaign, between 15 September 2013 tand 10 May 2014, Modi addressed 5827 rallies/programs/events. He travelled around 300,000 kilometres over 25 states, using an armouring of tactics unprecedented in terms of outreach and innovation. Where he couldn’t go himself, he reached out and addressed the people through his 3D hologram rallies appearing virtually like a kind of Indian Obi Wan Kenobi

The most remarkable support has come from the youth, especially those aged between 18 and 25, who are desperate for jobs. 

The mandate is also a clear indication of the faith people have put in Modi to revive the economy, bring down prices of essential commodities and improve infrastructure throughout the country. For the first time, it seems Indian voters have overlooked the caste, creed, religion and region to vote for a man who promises to revive the sluggish economy and restore ‘Indian honour’.  

While youth and the hope of economic revival have bolstered Narendra Modi, the credit for his win also goes to Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi’s leadership skills - or, rather, the lack of them. His party's humiliatingly woeful results point out that people of India have rejected Gandhi and his politics. The Congress party not only was fighting the huge anti-incumbency factor but was in denial of the “Modi wave” till the last day. 

Despite the exit polls predicting (accurately, as it turned out) their rout, Congress remained defiant, all the while chalking strategies to defend the Gandhi Scion.

Rahul Gandhi alone isn’t to be blamed. UPA II’s disastrous term, riddled with financial scams, mis-governance, lack of authority and respect for the Prime Minister, all played their part in what is recognised as the Congress Party's worst performance ever.

While Sonia Gandhi was barely seen in the campaign owing to her poor health, other senior Congress leaders were also absent from the hustings, perhaps sensing that an imminent loss awaited them. Meanwhile Rahul Gandhi trotted around aimlessly from one part of the country to next, delivering speeches that had no resonance with the public. The results display his utter failure to connect with the crowd. Congress has been wiped out in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Uttarakhand, J&K, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra. 

On the counting day, Rahul Gandhi remained indoors, while the senior leaders of the Congress Party were left to defend their dismal performance. “It’s a crushing and a devastating defeat for Congress. The numbers speak for themselves and its time for some serious introspection,” said Ashwani Kumar, a senior Congress leader, post the results. 

While Congress and Rahul Gandhi will now dissect the reasons behind their failure, Narendra Modi will leave for New Delhi from his residence in Gandhinagar on Saturday morning. A rousing welcome and celebrations await him in the capital. But with a blueprint of his cabinet ready, Modi is likely to get on with the task of forming the next government as soon as the celebrations ease back. 

India has reposed huge faith in him. With great expectations to be fulfilled, Narendra Modi’s toughest challenge will now be to deliver on the promises he has made. 

First published: http://electionwatch.edu.au/india-2014/verdict-how-modi-wave-became-tsunami

When the stars come out to play (politics)

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“Roads Washed In Dry Bankura To Protect Moon Moon Sen” screamed the headlines when yester-year Bollywood star Moon Moon Sen (above), also a political contestant standing on a Trinamool Congress ticket, went campaigning for a seat this election.

In a perennially thirsty village, a three kilometre section of road was indeed doused just to ensure that Moon Moon Sen and her star daughters didn’t have to deal with the ‘inconvenient’ dust. 

The local government didn’t seem to mind the political party's action, even though the entire Bankura district in West Bengal suffers from an acute shortage of drinking water in summer. And despite the drain on their precious resource, huge crowds turned out to greet the celebrity entourage. Such is the power of stardust in India.

The flirtation of film stars with political power is not new – or exclusive – to India. Since the matinee movie heyday, idols like NT Ramo Rao, MG Ramachandran and Chiranjivi in south India to Amitabh Bachchan, Rajesh Khanna, Dharmendra and Govinda in north India have tried their luck in politics. Some succeeded and achieved high accolades in the world of politics, while some suffered and soon withdrew, bruised, vowing never to return.

Superstar Amitabh Bachchan (left, in the cult classic Sholay) took a brief break from his film career in 1984 to enter politics and won with a spectacular margin in Allahabad.

Bachchan shared some family connections with the Gandhi power dynasty, and was extremely close to then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and his wife Sonia Gandhi. But after a three-year stint in politics, Bachchan left mid-way through his term, when his name was dragged into two notorious corruption scandals. 

Reflecting on his decisiion to quit politics, he once wrote in his blog: “'I felt for 25 years I had tried to woo my audience to love me as an artist, as an actor. And once I had accomplished that I was now telling them to love my politics as well. Not acceptable to me. It was wrong. I was wrong. I was dividing my audience and my fans.” (Bachchan never returned to politics. But his wife, actress Jaya Bachchan, represents the Samajwadi Party in the Upper House in Parliament today.)

So why do film stars without any background in politics, social service or policy making, jump into the fray?

And in spite (often) of their obvious incompetence in these fields, how do some of them manage to survive and succeed?

For the political parties, superstar appeal and the fan following that celebrity candidates deliver is powerfully attractive, especially in an otherwise hostile constituency. They not only draw in the crowd but also their devotees attention to the key issues.

Indian film stars often come with a carefully clean image and possess a power to influence the voter. On big screens, these film stars often play Messiahs of the poor, fighting the bad on behalf of the weak and powerless, and always choosing the right, tougher road over the wrong, albeit easy, path.

They have their own personal story of struggle to share, and have been achievers in their own individual right - narratives that find great resonance with the audience.

Couple these drawcards with no political baggage, and we get a sense of why stars are such “convenient candidates” for the political parties.

For national political parties, having film stars on board gives them some glamour, snaring media attention and public interest at political rallies.

For stars, politics becomes an option for an alternative career if, or when, their screen allure is flailing or fading. Most of the film stars are likely to enter politics when they are nudging retirement or have recently bowed out from the movie business. Hema Malini, Gul Panag, Kirron Kher, Vinod Khanna, Chiranjeevi are classic examples.

With their star power still intact, the enthusiastic response from the masses to their political road shows and rallies often provides some salve to their dwindling box office value. 

It is plainly a win-win relationship. Not a single mainstream party has failed to sign up a celebrity candidate in the 2014 campaign.

Rahul Gandhi’s Indian National Congress has fielded Raj Babbar, Nagma, Ravi Kishen, Chiranjeevi and Ramya. But Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janta Party has the longest list of film stars contesting: Kirron Kher, Bappi Lahiri, Shatrunghan Sinha, Hema Malini, Babul Supriyo, Manoj Tiwari, Vinod Khanna and Paresh Rawal are all fighting elections on the BJP ticket.

Even the newly launched Aam Aadmi Party - or the Common Man's Party -  has won star power in the form of Miss India-turned-actress-turned-politician Gul Panag.

Mamta Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress has Moon Moon Sen and Joy Banerjee fighting for her while the Bengali Disco Dancer Mithoon Chakraborthy – who is also a Member of Parliament in the Upper House – is campaigning hard for her in West Bengal. 

Recognising the Indian mindset – people are loyal to their favourite stars and prove their devotion by voting for them – it would be safe to expect that half of these names will installed as new Members of Parliament by next month. They will join a long list of film stars already present in the Upper House. 

Then the hard part begins. It's worth observing that with very few exceptions, most of the filmstars who have won elections in the past never stood for a second term. While scandal allegations proved to be the fatal hurdle in Bachchan’s political career, Govinda gave up politics when he realised that ‘it wasn’t his cup of tea’. Govinda, the dancing super star, failed miserably as an MP who represented the North Mumbai constituency. 

But these failures haven’t deterred the next generation of celebrities from exiting stage right to the political arena. National Award winning actor Paresh Rawal, a BJP candidate fighting his first electoral battle from Ahmedabad, says: “I don't intend to make a political career, my entrance is cause-specific. I want Narendera Modi to be the prime minister.”

On the other side Gul Panag, the AAP contestant from Chandigarh, wants “an atmosphere of clean politics”, and hopes her candidacy will encourage others to become part of the anti-corruption movement. 

Whatever their reasons, film stars, by virtue of their status, have always succeeded in their central obligation – garnering attention – and political parties aren’t complaining. One also hopes that once they are elected, these bombastic stars do not forget that this is more than a popularity contest, and there are promises to keep.

First Published: http://electionwatch.edu.au/india-2014/when-stars-come-out-play-politics

Crusader with the common touch, and uncommon ambition

AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal sleeps out in a Delhi street earlier this year.

He's a moustached and a bespectacled guy in his early 40s. An unremarkable-looking fellow with a receding hairline and a funny muffler wrapped around his head. He is not your immaculately dressed Narendra Modi, nor your polished Rahul Gandhi – the handsome scion of a political dynasty. If you watch him in action, even with the TV on mute, his body language and animated hand gestures speak volumes. He’s aggressive and restless. He’s Arvind Kejriwal.

A self-styled, 21st century Indian socialist-turned-politician he claims – as any candidate worth his salt will do – to represent the common man. What is uncommon about this one is the rampant success of his strategy, and the pace with which he has become a political sensation in India.

Had you asked about Arvind Kejriwal back in 2011, few people would have been able to describe him. Today ask any Indian and they will almost certainly have an opinion about him. Those withholding judgement are, at least, curious.

Arvind Kejriwal – who launched his Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), or Common Man Party, only in 2012 – has come a long way. Just 13 months after the party formed it won 28 out of 70 seats in the Delhi elections and he was installed as Delhi's Chief Minister.

The fact that his government lasted only 49 days is another story, but one that hasn’t deterred him from greater political ambition. Banking on the success of his state election performance, Kejriwal is now contesting a tough electoral fight against the Bharatiya Janta Party’s (BJP) prime ministerial candidate – and ranking favorite - Narendra Modi in the Varanasi constituency.

Kejriwal now looms as an unstoppable force in the Indian political arena.

What motivates him to take up such seemingly impossible challenges? For that, there are some clues in his personal history.

Raised in a middle-class family, he is a qualified mechanical engineer who graduated from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kharagpur. In a report published in India’s Caravan magazine, his father, Gobindram Kejriwal, himself a retired engineer, talks of his son’s determination. He recalls how young Arvind set his mind on getting into the prestigious IIT engineering course, refusing to enrol in any other college as a backup. He focused only on passing IIT's entrance exams – and cracked it.

“If he starts chasing something, just believe it that he’ll get it,” said Gobindram to the magazine.

After passing out from IIT, Kejriwal worked for a few years in the private corporate sector. But that didn’t interest him much and he decided to join the public service. He cleared the Indian Civil Services examination and served as a bureaucrat with the Indian Government, working in the Income Tax Department. But the job frustrated him, and the corruption he observed angered him.

His close associates say his passion for social service led him to seek voluntary retirement from his job in 2006. He was awarded the Ramon Magsaysay Award - a coveted award named for the late Philippies president – in 2006 for his contribution to the enactment of the Right to Information (RTI) Act, which empowers Indian citizens to seek information from public authorities.

Kejriwal, along with like-minded people – Manish Sisodia and Abhinandan Sekhri – floated a new non-government organisation, the Public Cause Research Foundation in New Delhi. He donated the prize money from his Magsaysay Award to help establish the foundation which collects, analyses and disseminates information about government rules and laws and ensures their enforcement. For this they use the RTI Act extensively and have helped Indian citizens hold the public service accountable.

Arvind Kejriwal’s focus soon turned to anti-corruption efforts and the Jan Lokpal Bill, which sought the appointment of an independent body to investigate corruption.

Kejriwal was a member of the committee constituted by the Government of India to draft the Bill, playing an important role in its development. He shot into the limelight when he joined hands with a veteran social reformer – Anna Hazare – to launch a massive anti-corruption movement that aimed to compel the Indian Parliament to pass the Jan Lokpal Bill.

While Anna Hazare became the face of the movement, it was Arvind Kejriwal who masterminded the campaign. Working tirelessly, his devotion to – and micro-management of – the initiative not only got the masses motivated, but also captured wide media interest.

It was Kejriwal’s idea to start the movement right after the Cricket World Cup and before the Indian Premiere League (IPL) began. This inspired timing helped the anti-corruption movement become a huge success,bringing citizens out to march in the streets and almost bringing the Indian Government to its knees.

Despite its success, Kejriwal parted ways with Anna Hazare due to differences of opinion, most crucially because of Kejriwal's enthusiasm to launch a political party to bring about the desired change in governance. Kejriwal wanted to capitalise on the wave of public support. Team Anna disagreed. Arvind Kejriwal, once again, this time with a handful of supporters by his side, decided to take the plunge.

The Aam Aadmi Party’s website clearly states its mission for entering politics. “The time for peaceful fasts and protests is gone. This is the time for action. Since most political parties are corrupt, greedy and thick-skinned, it's time to bring political power back into the people's hands.” With that aim in mind, Arvind Kejriwal set out to fight the Delhi elections, selecting a “broom” as his party's electoral symbol.

Support flowed in from all corners. One of the most talked about aspects of AAP's campaign was the transparency of donations to the party. Each penny was accounted for, the figure proudly displayed on the website.

On the counting day, when the news poured in about AAP's astonishing performance, crowd shots showed brooms being waved in the air as a mark of celebration.

But the euphoria was short lived. After failing to table the Jan Lokpal Bill in the Delhi Assembly, Kejriwal decided to dissolve the assembly and resigned as Delhi’s Chief Minister. Why? Because he had promised that if he failed to bring in the Jan Lokpal Bill, he wouldn’t continue as Delhi’s Chief Minister. Kejriwal is a stubborn man, and one who honors his promises.

He works hard, lives frugally and is often photographed travelling in his economical small car or taking the Delhi Metro or an auto-rickshaw (public transport) to campaign events. The woollen muffler wrapped around his head, and his perennial cough, have become trademarks of a sort, often utilized in political satires.

Kejriwal now looms as an unstoppable force in the Indian political arena. He has thrown himself into an eventful, closely-watched campaign in Varanasi against Modi, and seems to thrive on it. He has slept on the streets of Delhi on cold winter nights, protests at every opportunity, and has become a compelling subject of conversation across the country.

His critics complain he is the creation of his own hype. “Take away the camera from his face and then see what remains” is the mantra of the cynics. But say what you might of him, Arvind Kejriwal has definitely captured the the imagination of ordinary Indians, and the interest of edtors and TV news directors. He is a political phenomena that no one can ignore. Not even Rahul Gandhi or Narendra Modi.

Whether the Aam Aadmi Party ultimately puts up an equally brilliant performance on the national scene won't be known until the votes of the epic national ballot are counted next Friday (16 May). But regardless of the result Arvind Kejriwal, anti-corruption crusader, has changed the political discourse in India.


First Published on: http://electionwatch.edu.au/india-2014/crusader-common-touch-and-uncommon-ambition